Winning With Words. Chapter Twelve: It Wasn't Even Close
Everyone gathered at Franklin and Eleanor's estate at Hyde Park upstream from New York on the Hudson River. The Gallup Poll had the race too close to call, but the Roper Poll had Roosevelt winning;
This Chapter: For the many people who have surrendered their lives to a campaign for election with an uncertain outcome, there is nothing quite like Election Night. In this one, Franklin Roosevelt wanted to be alone in a room with a telephone, a pad to scribble on, and a guard at the door to assure his privacy. That was awkward in a house full of people he had invited to be there, but he was after all the Boss, the President hoping to get a third term to do the job in a wheelchair.
Contents of this Episode:
Playing Professional Politics. Released on Substack Saturday, May 17
Radio and Rail Rolling. Released on Substack Sunday, May 18
The Real Campaign Begins at its Very End. Released on Substack Monday, May 19
Handling John L. Lewis and Joe Kennedy. Released on Substack Tuesday, May 20
Countdown New York, Election Day Minus Eight. Released on Substack Wednesday, May 21
Countdown Washington, Selective Service, Election Day Minus Seven. Released on Substack Thursday, May 22
The Race Tightened. Was War the Issue? Or was it Anti-Semitism? Released on Substack Friday, May 23
Countdown Boston, Election Day Minus Six. Released on Substack Saturday, May 24
A Speech for the Ages; Election Day Minus Four. Released on Substack Sunday, May 25
The Final Speech: Embracing Democracy. Released on Substack Monday, May 26
Tallulah’s Big Show; Election Eve. Released on Substack Tuesday, May 27
It Wasn’t Even Close. Released on Substack Wednesday, May 28
Chapter Twelve: It Wasn’t Even Close
Reading time: three minutes
Gallup still showed Willkie only one point behind. He declined to predict the winner, but said, “The trend has been steady and the electoral vote also appears highly problematic.” Roper had Roosevelt winning 55-45 with an electoral landslide to match.
On Tuesday, Harry and Tallulah slept and met Rosenman and Sherwood, and their wives, for a late lunch and the 4:00 train to Hyde Park. Several dozen gathered for Eleanor’s self help spread and much drink. The president isolated himself at 9:00 with a radio, a telephone, and notepaper. At 10:00 he emerged smiling.
It wasn’t even close. Roper was right. Roosevelt received 55% of the popular vote — 27,313,945 — to Willkie’s 45% — 22,347,744.
Ed Flynn’s map was also on target, but his deep concern was unfounded. Only a handful of states were showing margins of less than 3% and in each case they showed a trend to Roosevelt. Indiana, Maine, Colorado, and Michigan were going to Willkie, but each by less than Flynn had expected. Michigan’s vote was separated by only 7,000 votes out of two million. Wisconsin and Illinois were close, but going to Roosevelt as expected. He carried New York by 3.6% and was “delighted” for the margin.
In all, ten states — each as Flynn had foreseen, including the farm belt — went for Willkie and thirty-eight for Roosevelt, giving him 449 electoral votes to Willkie’s 82.
The Solid South was more than solid. It approached mind-boggling. Roosevelt’s popular vote margins ranged from 85% in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Georgia to 95% in Mississippi and South Carolina. Texas (81%), Florida (75%), North Carolina (75%), and Tennessee (68%) felt the flow and followed along, as did Oklahoma and the border states of Missouri, Kentucky, and Virginia.
The West was a uniform Roosevelt blanket where his wins ranged from Arizona’s 64% to Wyoming’s 53%. He carried Oregon, McNary’s home state, by 8%, and Idaho and Montana to Flynn’s surprise.
The president called Ed Flynn to thank him and handed the phone off to Harry, who said to Flynn, “This southern vote bothers me.”
Flynn said, “Why?”
“It’s too big. It’s unsustainable. It’s not my problem. This is my last rodeo, but it’s yours as party chairman. After you spend two months drinking Mai Tais in the South Seas, you might want to dig into it.”
“It is odd. All those redneck lynch mobs and their targets voting the same way.”
“That’s my point, expressed in Bronx vulgarity. I wonder what the popular vote outcome would have been if all the southern states had been as close as the rest of the country.”
“I can tell you that one thing in the time it takes you to roll a cigarette.”
Harry heard him pound the keys of a loud calculator. Harry said, “I only do that when I’m alone. I bought this one.”
Flynn said, “I’m gonna guess it wouldn’t have jeopardized much more than a million in the popular vote. Those states don’t turnout big numbers. Hell, South Carolina didn’t turn out a hundred thousand. But it puts ninety electoral votes in play. Lose all of those and we still win pretty comfortably. Still …”
“Still, we’re left as the beneficiaries of an odd alliance. The coloreds and the people who hate them. Redneck lynch mobs, as you so ungraciously put it.”
Flynn said, “It’s something, but it won’t keep me from overdosing on Mai Tais.”